Borussia Dortmund vs. St. Pauli: Match Preview, Predictions, H2H Stats, and More – Bundesliga, October 18, 2024

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Borussia Dortmund will welcome newly promoted St. Pauli to the Signal Iduna Park on October 18 as their seventh outing of the 2024-25 campaign gets underway with Bundesliga action running hot. Fresh from a disappointing 2-1 defeat against Union Berlin, Dortmund come into the tie sitting 7th in the Bundesliga standings, while St. Pauli find themselves in 15th place on the log and desperate for change in standing in the league following a poor start to the campaign. The encounter promises to be one of sheer excitement and drama, as both teams desperately need the vital points. Let's get into the details in the match preview, head-to-head statistics, team news, and predictions.

Form and Team Overview: Borussia Dortmund

Under the management of former Liverpool midfielder Nuri Sahin, Borussia Dortmund have experienced a rollercoaster start to their Bundesliga campaign. Following an excellent opening with four wins in their first five games, BVB's form has fluttered with two defeats in their last four outings. In their most recent Bundesliga outing, Dortmund lost 2-1 to Union Berlin, which ignited further questions over their consistency.

While their Champions League form has been exquisite-most notably a 7-1 thrashing of Celtic in early October-the domestic performances of Dortmund have been pretty shaky: the team has conceded 11 goals in their last five Bundesliga matches while managing to score 10. Their defense remains a weak point, a fact underlined by a 5-1 defeat to Stuttgart in late September.

However, Dortmund's home form remains good, having won eight out of their last nine home matches at Signal Iduna Park. They had managed to score a whopping 32 goals during that period while conceding just nine. An attack spearheaded by the likes of Julian Brandt, Donyell Malen, and Guirassy remains potent for Dortmund, but their poor defending has let them drop points repeatedly.

Borussia Dortmund's Key Players

Julian Brandt: Brandt has been in top form, providing creativity and drive from midfield. His vision and passing make him a key player in breaking down defenses.

Donyell Malen: A pacey and versatile forward, Malen has been vital in the attack for Dortmund, often scoring crucial goals.
Guirassy: The main attacking player of the team, Guirassy will be very important for holding up the ball and clinically finishing it into the net in order to get a good result against St. Pauli.

Injury Concerns for Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund have a number of players ruled out, including:

• Karim Adeyemi (Out until November)
• Giovanni Reyna (Out until November)
• Julien Duranville and Yan Couto (Both ruled out until the start of November)
• Niklas Sule and Maximilian Beier (Uncertain)

However, in spite of all these, Dortmund boast seriously incredible depth, with the likes of Marcel Sabitzer and Pascal Gross likely to step up into midfield.

Form and Team Overview of St. Pauli

Newly-promoted St. Pauli have found it really hard to get used to life in the Bundesliga. With a position of 15th and a total score of four points from their first six matches, the Hamburg-based team has really failed to stamp their authority. Their most recent defeat came from Mainz with a score of 3-0, despite a total of 19 shots on goal. However, Mainz did show a ruthless streak in front of the goal when they took advantage of the defensive frailties of St. Pauli.

The attack of St. Pauli was one of the weakest in the league, having scored only four goals, which is the fewest number of goals any Bundesliga team so far has managed to score. Their defense showed weakness, though, having conceded nine goals, of which six were conceded in the second halves of the matches.

However, this form for St. Pauli hasn't been a complete disaster. In recent weeks, they have been able to scrape their way with a goalless draw against RB Leipzig and a win over Freiburg 3-0 in a few bright spots of what they can do. Their manager Alexander Blessin would just wish that his team finds the lacking consistency to help them remain buoyant in the league.

St. Pauli's Key Players

Jackson Irvine: The combative midfielder, Irvine, has been important in disrupting opposition play and driving St. Pauli forward.
Johannes Eggestein: As an attacker, Eggestein's space finding and finishing will be pivotal should St. Pauli be any kind of upset.
Hauke Wahl: A center-back, Wahl needs to marshal his backline adequately as Dortmund's attack is put to a halt.

Injury Concerns for St. Pauli

St. Pauli have huge injury concerns, most especially in the goalkeeping department:
Soren Ahlers, Sascha Burchert, and Ben Alexander Voll are all unavailable.

In addition to this, St. Pauli will be without winger Elias Saad and striker Simon Zoller, which would further deplete attacking options at their disposal.

Borussia Dortmund vs. St. Pauli: Head-to-Head (H2H) Stats

In all, Borussia Dortmund and St. Pauli have come together a total of 8 times in competitive matches. Of these, Dortmund managed 6 victories, while St. Pauli garnered just 1 and there was a single draw between the sides. The last encounter between the two sides took place in the 2022 DFB-Pokal, with Dortmund being absolutely stunned by St. Pauli to take a 2-1 victory.

However, in Bundesliga games, Dortmund have proved well beyond any likeness in standards of St. Pauli, who have hardly managed to run along with Dortmund's pacey attacking futbol.

• All Matches Played: 8
• Dortmund Wins: 6
• St. Pauli Wins: 1
• Draws: 1
• Average Goals per Match: 3.13

Tactical Analysis Borussia Dortmund's Tactical Setup

Nuri Sahin's general formation this season is in the shape of 4-2-3-1, press high up the pitch, and transition very quickly. During attack, Dortmund relies on speedy wingers like Malen and Brandt, who cross into Guirassy, their center-forward, or try to play him through with a line-breaking pass.

In midfield, Sabitzer and Gross will most probably form a double pivot tasked with the job of controlling possession and breaking up opposition attacks. At the back, the defence is likely to be marshaled by Waldemar Anton and Nico Schlotterbeck, though their defensive organisation will need to improve after recent slip-ups.

St. Pauli's Tactical Setup

Alexander Blessin has opted for a much more conservative approach-a customary setup in a 3-4-3 formation. St. Pauli's defense will sit deep in all probability, trying to absorb Dortmund's pressure and hit them on the counterattack.

Where it really matters is in the midfield battle, and it's highly likely that Jackson Irvine and Robert Wagner can make a strong double pivot to protect the back. Up front, St. Pauli will go looking for every gap left by Dortmund's full-backs, with Afolayan and Guilavogui bringing in pace on the wings.

Key Matchups

Julian Brandt vs. Jackson Irvine: Brandt's creative playmaking will be central to Dortmund's attack, and Irvine's ability to disrupt his rhythm will be vital for St. Pauli.
Guirassy vs. Hauke Wahl: Guirassy's physical presence and clinical finishing will be a major threat, and Wahl will need to be at his best to keep him quiet.
Donyell Malen vs. St. Pauli's Defence: Malen's pace and dribbling ability will continue to stretch them, and the St. Pauli centre-backs will need to be as compact as possible in order to avoid giving him the slightest window of opportunity to create something.

Predictions

Given the form and disparity in squad strength between the two, all pointers are towards a Borussia Dortmund win. Their attacking firepower, particularly at home, should be more than what a struggling St. Pauli side can contain. Very scant prospects for an upset by St. Pauli, given the inconsistencies in scoring and the tendency to concede goals, though their previous victory in the DFB-Pokal does provide a glimmer of hope.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 St. Pauli

Betting Tips
Over 2.5 Goals: This should be a high-scoring game with Dortmund's attack and St. Pauli's leaky defence.
Dortmund to Win to Nil: With St. Pauli having scored only a few goals so far, there is ample opportunity for Dortmund to keep clean sheets.

Conclusion

Borussia Dortmund will look to get back on winning ways when they take on St. Pauli on October 18th, 2024. With the likes of Brandt and Malen in the ranks, coupled with home advantage at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund will more than likely dominate proceedings. For St. Pauli, the concentration will be on trying to keep the score respectable while looking for such an opportunity to strike back at Dortmund on the counter.

It has been many a time seen in football that no one can accurately predict what will happen on the field, but this seems a win that should be comfortable for Borussia Dortmund on paper.